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Friday 21 August 2015

Why XT Should Start Their Own Party


A vocal online debate has been raging. Echoing through the endless chambers of the internet. All this at a time when the majority of the world have not even got their heads around the concept of a how a simple crypto currency works. There are even publications as mainstream as Bloomberg discussing it. In the past I have taken a wait and see approach as I also believe the majority of bitcoin users have. But now I think XT activists are out of control, more out of control than me, especially on Reddit, and we have to say something.

Its for simple moral reasons that I think they should start their own party. They tried to start a fight.

Inspiring hard forking is risky for any crypto currency. The mining process is continually cutting down forks and creating consensus for a reason. Hard forks especially corrupt the ledger across time and this is the primary function of bitcoin this should be avoid. Some miners end up mining for free, transactions bounce and there are possibilities of double spends. Accurate ledgers are what we want and they are the most fair, it as simple as that.

Bitcoin in its current form is a programming miracle and perfectly functional in its current state. This is respectable and should be revered in a way for its stability. Many companies have been set up under the current framework and have tailored their services around the blocksize. It could be a pressure cooker for innovation and adoption. Any major change to the most successful crypto currency should be a last resort option. 

Decentralisation! yes I hear you! We should not censor ideas and everyone should be free. These are themes that are important and part of the fabric of crypto currency mechanism, but people need to be realistic when talking about areas within the code. It's hard to keep a program working based on chaotically competing core applications. I think purist's need to be reasonable.

Chaotic competition should happen between crypto currencies, but within them there needs to be some harmony. Altcoins are available to make money transfers with. They are fully functional and some well established in their own right. Many of them have aspects that are too far out for people starting, but will surely lead to some coin that will one day surpass the bitcoin in users. Can a few bitcoin XT enthusiast really predict the future? It's a complex environment involving many features, including humans and nobody really knows what could be happening in the world ten years from now and when transaction fees become bitcoin miners main reward. 

All this said, there is nothing stopping XT fans from creating their own altcoin from genesis and starting their own party.  

"If they don't like the bitcoin koolade then go make your own, the stuffs open source! you don't need to spike ours!"

This is the crux of the moral issue. Early adopters to a genesis block XT currency, one not using the bitcoin blockchain, would receive huge mining rewards. If this would be successful it would be a huge financial benefit to them. However XT fans don't want to do this. They know that the small modification to bitcoin would not grab widespread appeal. If they believe in it so much then you'd think that they'd be willing to start fresh.

In short XT fans want keep Bitcoins users and infrastructure and twist to their own view. But who are we to know whats right? Litecoin already offers and equivalent to a 4mb block, and there is much more transaction volume available on dash, doge and peer coins than there would be on an XT network. The amount of marketing and reputation and commerce building required for a cypto currency can be huge. Its took years for bitcoin to get off the ground and many altcoins struggle for attention. So XT comes along and says "hey bitcoin your so cool, this is a nice party, I totaly want to be just like you, you just need a little XT". Everyone else is like "ahh we've been refining this recipe for years and its going great, here's the ingredients if you like try making your own" then XT starts a cyber scream.
Bitcoin users are well aware of what Bitcoin is and what it can do at the moment. That's why they are there. It's strength is in peoples belief in its current form, functionality and reputation. People who think another crypto currency is better can easily change their bitcoin for it. Exchanges doing this are much easier than those using fiat. So XT can set up a party on the other side of the street and we can all play together, drink each others koolaid, have a block party so to speak. Combine and make one big party if we like, Change is good but it should be inspired. Violence won't work on a decentralised system. Within the currency progress will only come with consensus.

All the arguing and posturing kills the vibe and is a waste. People should be getting active and getting their friends on board with bitcoin in general. Priorities get twisted and the detail is amazing, but trying to mess with the core at the moment is unnecessary. Helping people understand the simplicity of bitcoin is the key.

Saturday 15 August 2015

Meaningless Austerity


People on the streets of Greece protest about cuts as an injustice. To outsiders it seems logical and simple, loans are supposed to be repaid right? We could even go as far as to think that "austerity" as a catch phrase is really a spurious term. Your not really being that austere when you insist that people don't spend money they don't have, you're just keeping the deal straight. Austere in as defined in English is

1Severe or strict in manner or attitude: he was an austere man, with a rigidly puritanical outlook
1.1(Of living conditions or a way of life) having no comforts or luxuries: conditions in the prison could hardly be more austere
1.2Having a plain and unadorned appearance: the cathedral is impressive in its austere simplicity

So on first site the vibe of the term actually seems to be screwed in favor of the underdog here. Since when did the mass media start wanting to help out the little guy? On close inspection we can see that the term is planted by the state and an expression of pro money printing.

In Greece there is an overwhelming under tone that austerity is pointless and unfair. When you look at the facts you can start to see how it could be.
  • Other countries have higher debt levels
  • Other countries have higher debt to GDP ratios
  • Other countries benefit from the economic stimulus provided by bailing out Greece. (Germany experiences a manufacturing advantage kind of like china used to from pegging its currency down)
  • Greece's s debt is created by high interest rates that are imposed from outside financial industry.
  • Greece doesn't have a large financial industry. One that would rely on low interest rates to survive.
All of these points stack. Austerity is meaningless from this perspective. Central to the subject is the ECI "Economic Complexity Index" This is a ranking system set up at MIT that has become popular for macro economic analysis. It measure the sectors and complexity of imports exports on a country. This rating affords Japan its high debt levels with its number one ECI status.

But what does Complexity have to do with credit worthiness? One major issue with this analysis of economies is that it does not include the financial industry! Its understandable that they left it out due to the nature of the industry, it doesn't really produce much, however in developed western countries this industry represents a large part of the economy. So when assessing peoples credit worthiness and deciding their interest rates economists are often excluding the industries which really on low interest rates to operate. But these countries need the low rates the most, in UK this finance makes up to 30% of the economy they could never operate with interest rates like those in Greece.

It all adds up to a big knot. Austerity is simply be a buzz word, there is no such thing. World economics are screwed in favor of those in power, It's a contorted mess from the outside, but from the inside it just sucks. Greece is an example of this money trap, but its at work all over the world. Lets stop playing paper machete countries and send them some bits! Talk to Andreas Antonopoulos

How Cool is Litecoin!


Little sister litecoin has been growing up. A group of users have come together and created 100 new jobs in Madagascar and offset the electricity used by the network with litecoin donations! It is so cool to think that an app on your computer, so easy to use could be so powerful on a world wide scale.

Litecoin is a parallel system to bitcoin which runs on a very similar program. Some parameters have been changed which allow for faster transactions and easier CPU mining and network maintenance.  For more information can be found here. the good thing about lite coin is you know the protocol is solid as its almost identical to bitcoins. It's also been around for quite a while, since 2011. The originator, Charls Lee is actually a real person and he's pretty chill. A litecoin was never intended to be worth as much as a bitcoin, its more of a peoples currency.

As with many altcoins, when you look at litecoin you see the rickety, thrown together web sites and web articles. Its an exciting time warp for someone who can remember the initial stages of bitcoin. It gives me the warm fuzzies and make me feel a bit nostalgic, you can play a significant role if you contribute here. Its not taken over by celebrities and corporate types like some might say bitcoin is becoming.

What does this mean for the futurists? In recent weeks the price sky rocketed in a boom reminiscent of a bitcoin boom in 2012. Mr USD is now getting out smoked by litecoin. The price hit $8! If it goes the same way as bitcoin then you could make an early retirement on this. If you look at the charts you can see its on the rise.

Sites like Bitroad, where you can buy electronics with bitcoin and litecoin are awesome! Litecoin works well along side bitcoin as a payment option as it gives you a better perspective of the price. when something costs 0.1 bitcoins it feels weird but when next to it is say 50LTC you kinda feel more at home. I like having the option.

The physical coins that just came out are looking super slick in silver. The reddit page is mint. Also the mining asic's mining rigs look pretty cool and might actually pay off on a small scale. It makes a good way to get into mining and find out what crypto-currency started from and what its all about. After the recent price hikes I feeling like getting some more of this digital ice. A bit of that cyber-punk night walking, cord hacking, forum scrolling, computer coding, basement whurling underground stuff.  Hey if you can't get the crypto gold why not try some silver? Its fun to be on the fringe and its amazing what these little things can achieve.

Monday 20 July 2015

Lets Start a Jurassic Park Fund!

 
Some blogger like me says "Lets start a Jurassic Park fund!" 10 minutes later it's done! What does this mean for innovation and the global economy? Could it be a butterfly effect? Like the names sake it seems crazy but Cypto-currency and bitcoin is now the fastest growing venture capitol sector.

Coinprism makes crowd funding and international micro ownership better and easier in itself. For example I have actually created in the time it takes to write this blog. Here it is.

Officially I'm issuing 10,000 share tokens in a future 'Jurassic Park' as of .... now!

You can trade them for fun initially and use it as a marketing for the cause. Just tip me here and put Jurassic park in the comment.

I'll send you some. Depending on how interested you are I'll send you more as you need.
At first all you'll need is to download the Coinprism app to store and trade your shares from.

I can't guarantee that it will actually eventuate. but of course all transactions will be public. If it works well we can even do a  share split and a second round of actual significantly monetised funding.

When the time comes and the total value increases to a viable level we can get this thing started. With a good understanding of Chaos theory of course and you can contact me with any issues. All major financial decisions will be made by verified shareholder voting online.

That's it. Whacky idea floated, permanently, transparently and understandably, even time stamped on the bitcoin network! You can find the details here it has an emblem and everything. Share holdings can be traced online in real time.

Anyone can make your own counterfeit proof digitally transferable tokens based on the bitcoin network for anything they like. I've also created a currency I've been using it to make bets between friends. Try it out, its so easy you can just do it for fun, just like starting a Facebook page. What this kind of open access does to the world though is uncharted territory, it's wild. You might feel like you've broken out of the cage! Not that you're into eating children in seemingly impenetrable balls.


 

Monday 6 July 2015

McDonalds and Crypto


I was watching TV the other day, something  don't do often. I don't even own one, but I had a little revelation when watching this McDonalds add that was airing in NewZealand last year. The add really didn't present loose change in a positive light.

The two chummy guys scrounged some coins and crumpled up notes onto the counter along with some lint, an awkward smile and an eye role from the attendant. They we're extremely stoked to be able to swap such junk for an edible cheeseburger.

This is when it dawned on me. McDonalds as an international mega company probably spends millions on bank fee's and cash handling costs. I looked it up online but couldn't find out exactly how much McDonalds spends. they probably don't even know, but I did find this on average EU transaction costs;

"On average, debit card transactions cost the retailer 9p each, or about 0.2% of the bill. Credit card transactions typically cost much more, at around 0.9%."

With Bitcoin those costs can be zero. But 0.001% if you do the normal thing and source your transaction confirmations from other peoples mining computers and want it done quickly.

The revenue of McDonalds internationally is insane, who knows what it is, but the head franchise does $27.5Billion, so at 0.2% they could save $55million dollars a year. I have a feeling those greedy old capitalist will find it difficult to say no to that. 

They are implementing digital ordering systems, ordering on ipads. The next stage must surely be digital currency which would load straight onto that system. This would save them millions with time saving at the counter and with eftpos terminal costs, let alone fees from banks.

So its all really quite inevitable. Companies like this do not care how they get paid as long as they get it. They are cut throat and the less they have to pay the better. That's why you'll be seeing punks pulling up to McDonald's in denim jackets and Bitcoin bought Lamborghini's and spending their Bits on guilty pleasures, quickly before their Vegan friends see.

Sunday 28 June 2015

Zyber and Amplifying Growth from Technology

Why is it that we say that developed countries can't sustain 5% growth? In economics theory, technology saturation, diminishing returns on investment, limited resources and disrupted innovation in corporations come to mind. My economist friends say people reach a state of comfort, but comfort is comparative. I like to separate the concept in to two categories, physical and psychological. This is important as psychological problems can be approached in a much different way. I argue that the physical barriers may not be as they seem.

Why couldn't investment ontop of investment create a better return? Why cant a technology bringing together other technologies provide a greater result than what technologies do alone? I argue that there can be synergy in technology in highly developed economy. I feel that it may be that we are only just entering a truly technological world and that it is possible that the growth from technology can be compounding even exponential. Technology is amplified in a technology rich world.

Conventional though is

1 unit of tech + 1 unit of tech - 0.25 superseded industry = 1.75 units of growth

I propose that its possible for

(1 unit of tech + 1 unit of tech - 0 superseded industry) x amplifications factor = 2.5 units of growth

Scarcity is a big factor of the economics of the past. The world has limited physical resources to be converted to growth. Scarcity however becomes less relevant in the future in a world where information is mined and we don't rely on physical things for growth. We can see new dynamics already appearing with zero marginal costs, the sharing economy and the internet of things.

I was discussing this with over a drink and a friend bought up the the subject of the lack of significant developments in recent years.The internet, 3D printing and driver-less cars, three things, and that's it.  Compare that with the automobile, the jet engine and the nuclear reactor of yesteryear and with nomral perception we seem to be falling behind.

I would add the automation of the financial system (as allowed through crypto-currency) to our list of big recent developments. but as with bitcoins it isn't the invention itself but the utilisation that is the key to growth. The full benefit to the motor car isn't actualised until everyone uses one and this is still growing today. Perception is key when converting inventive technology to economic quality of life.

I propose that the invention of a car that can drive itself provides more efficiencies than that of the original automobile. This because more time will be saved and it allows more new business models across what is now a larger infrastructure. The new challenge becomes converting time and business models to growth. This contrast the straight resource conversion of old economics.

One example of technological synergy comes when your combine a mobile internet gps technology Uber and the developing Google Self-Driving Car. Uber provides an efficient taxi service allowing cab drivers to respond dynamically to demand and self manage. Google Chauffeur automates the act of driving. The developments do overlap. There are diminishing returns across the technologies but when the concepts are combined we get a dynamically responsive and automated transport system. A revolution in transport. I call this 'Zyber' and it can be used for more than just taxi rides, imagine miniature courier vans even buses, trucks and planes. I argue that in this case and cases like it technologies come together to equal more than the sum of there parts.

Labour is the main cost for Uber as it is with many companies. With driver-less cars the Uber service which is already very cost effective would be overwhelmingly cheaper than owning your own driver-less car. It will come with other benefits like not having to pay for parking and convenient vehicle choice.

($40b Uber + $100b Google Chauffeur - $90b superseded industry) x 20 amplification factor = $1000b Zyber growth

Efficiency doesn't necessarily equally growth. What happened to the porters and horses when the car was invented? With Zyber, car parking buildings and car sales will go down per capita. The superseded part of the economy will be huge. but part of what new technology has done is allowed us to fill these gaps more quickly than before. Car park buildings are converted to apartments and assembly lines practice JIT delivery. Modern stock markets redistribute capitol more quickly than before and start ups are seeded internationally over the internet. 3D printers that are used to print a car radiators don't care if they now have to print aircraft parts. Through technology we can see that superseded industry is replaced more and more quickly. I predict that we will see a lot of this  in the future which can actually open up the economy to growth.

The main point is of the effect on the existing infrastructure. Infrastructure in a way could also be called technology. In the case of Zyber, the massive infrastructure of roads will be amplified. The economic effect being the same a that of large infrastructure spending. I argue that the same thing will happening when bitcoin leverages on the growing internet and that this type of synergy will be seen more often in the future.

The world has changed and we need to look carefully to see that the technology is impressive. With new thinking we can find resources in technological places that can provide new profits and growth from unexpected places. The idea that technology can leverage against existing technology better than against non technologies is exciting and positive for future growth. Bitcoin and the internet are definitely part of these amplifying technologies. Adoption is key and it often slow and is difficult to measure. I argue that in today's increasingly intangible world all the barriers to economic growth are psychological.