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Wednesday 25 May 2022

Worse Than Luna - Banks are Over 20x Leverage Long Their Whole Fiat Stack

With Luna and its stable coin UST crashing to near zero, Defi and digital ponzi scheme's have been in the spot light.  UST value based through a convoluted scheme on the value of Luna and an algorith to buy Bitcoin, worked great until someone with a lot of money saw that they could just sell a whole lot of Luna and Bitcoin at once whilst shorting UST. They make money on the short and can just keep adding pressure, whilst others freak out and jump on board. Something like that anyway, and its all over for people who though they had stable coins, they should have been called stable until they disappear coins. 

People generally don't comprehend the nasty position that banks have got themselves into with fractional reserve banking it is not that different to that of UST and Luna, actually it may be worse. They are just lucky they have big friends back them up in the past. 

Banks are taking deposit and loaning them out 20 times over. Giving loans to people without having funds to back it up this is like Defi based on UST (except with leverage and lower interest rates) and there is a lot of it, most people have loans for their houses, this is like shorting UST. This leverage banks against assets makes them very reliant on property and asset prices going up. If prices go up then the risk on their leverage is reduced and they get more money. If it goes down the trouble snowballs.

The traditional US dollar is what this old fashioned system works with. Like UST it needs to be held steady so that the loans and things on top of it don't get so volatile that people don't trust them. It is held up by the federal reserve which has T bills (like Luna) and also gold, let's say just in case (like USTs holdings of Bitcoin) and they can use this to defend the value of the dollar. The difference is one single person doesn't really have enough money to sell enough and short enough of these things to put the price into a death spiral.

The general public however are already short the dollar with their mortgages ( having a loan is effectively the same as beeing short). Banks are leverage long
the dollar. At the same time if loans default then banks have leveraged exposure to asset prices. So banks need asset prices to go up and the dollar to hold value, not so hot at the moment.

So the only remaining steps would be a unified public increasing mortgage debt and selling T bills and Gold. Might just happen by itself.

Monday 23 May 2022

Simplicity Script Language Coming To Bitcoin

The complex smart contracts that are the pride of coins like etherium, cardano and solana may be coming to bitcoin soon. Apparently at Blockstream it's only two weeks away;0. It will likely be much longer, but I get the feeling it might not beat the merge. You can find more details here. You can also now run a full Liquid node with a full open source stack, one click GUI on Umbrel. this app will likely include simplicity when it is launched. SUCH WOW. So many bitcoin layer 2 projects!

https://bitcoinist.com/simplicity-bitcoin-smart-contracts/ 

Saturday 14 May 2022

After June or Maybe Never

Etheriums Merge is five years late but people are still putting out positive narratives about its readyness. No mention of the community node and minner processes, but still a lead developer shills his CV website and assures the minions. The etheriums hash rate continues to go up. There may be hope for cheaper graphics cards yet! Or maybe the etherium foundation is figuring out how they can cover their funds incase the whole thing blows up. Maybe it's Pulse?