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Wednesday 30 September 2020

What is Bitcoin's Escape Velocity?

When investment gurus Paul Tudor Jones and funds Micro Strategy are getting in on bitcoin we are at a point where we have to consider where we are on our metaphorical route to the moon. With the price for a full coin at around 10k it can be intimidating, but we are on the satoshi standard now and you can have 100 of them for 1 cent. So as that number bias will fade out. Escape velocity to the next moon I think is approaching and is more about a comparative entry point. Bitcoin, at least as it is now, is a tool for bringing everyday people out of poverty so the escape velocity price is going to be about the moment, what you can afford in one go and the current volatility and price direction. 

At the moment the price is moving generally up but can fluctuate a lot. I don't think many average people would fork out more than 20k for a bitcoin investment in this situation. This means 

Its not scientific, its emotional, but this is what matter as it comparative wealth not just the number that makes the difference. In the face of a 20x bull run from here the stash of sats would be worth 400k something that many people would never be able to save and invest.

When the price starts going straight up the amount people will spend will actually go up, because it seems like a better risk, leading to the moon ramps we have seen. The early investor out paces this though because the commitment value does not increase as much or as fast as the price. 

So the escape velocity is different for everyone. The challenge is getting everyone to feel it before big organisations and governments get in on it at that stage you want to be above your escape velocity line. the best way I would say is to slowly and consistently save The question to be clear on in your own head is, in this moment are you at or above the escape velocity line? Do you have more than 2 BTC or I should say 200 million sats? Maybe a million sats is enough.      



Monday 28 September 2020

Scam Alert! Scammers Take Advantage of Chamath

 I know he seems generous, but in any case he wouldn't do it like this. Scams can catch the bets of us at the wrong time. Be careful, don't send bitcoin anywhere you wouldn't make a bank transfer to. Chamath Palihapitiya is great, and Elon Musk for that matter, but not so great that he will double your bitcoin for you just for the Social Capital.If it to good to be true, then check the blockchain first and do a thorough web search. 


See details here: https://news.bitcoin.com/btc-giveaway-scam-chamath-palihapitiya-elon-musk-not-giving-away-bitcoin/




Friday 11 September 2020

NZ Long-term National Bitcoin Strategy

NZ government takes on bitcoin as reserve currency backstop. Purchases a growing bitcoin stash covertly with current account surplus/overseas funds.

After the stash is sufficient a law is passed and announcement is made. Every year the NZD cash rate to redeem bitcoin is set at a certain ratio. Citizens can redeem notes for btc.

If btc goes down, NZD goes down, which is good for exporters. Which leads to increased btc holdings for the next year. This creates a country buying during downward market situation.

If btc goes up, NZD will tend to go up also, but it is not directly correlated. We don't know what the next redemption ratio will be. The government could at the year end set it low, which would wipe out the redemption value of the nzd and control it's price going up too much.

Cash redemption would initially be the only method and would have to be done in person in New Zealand and notes checked for counterfeiting. This would not stop people overseas from doing it themselves overseas and the possibly aggregating in nz before the ratios are reset. Possibly creating more volume towards the end of each period.

This situation can be continued taking advantage of btc movements to support money printing and currency stability. Note there is a two way effect here as the countries own currency fluctuations can move the btc price. It can effectively put a floor on the btc price.

The nzd will next become a crypto currency itself and this would be exchanged for btc in existing markets. At this time the nzd becomes free floating against btc. The ratio can be removed and the government btc stash sold. The country could have made a huge amount on capital gains on btc, printed a lot of nzd and spent it all over and by this stage there is little need for a national reserve as citizens have their own bitcoin.