Digital Beggar

Recently I moved to the UK to take a new job and after unexpectedly losing that job, I find myself resorting to desparate measures. Normally I sell stuff and was working as the area manager for new business development. After two just two months, they held an emergency meeting and decided they were not ready to expand. Yes I am bitter, all this despite our multiple Skype calls and months of anticipation before my moving from New Zealand.

So here I am, desperate for a job and hoping for the best with big bills approaching. this compounded by the fact that my girlfriend has received no funding for her post doctoral study and consequently we have depleted both of our savings over the last 6 months getting established.

With UK bank overdrafts and credit cards maxed out, New Zealand credit cards not working due to security issues I find myself actually have to pay for my girlfriends tickets to Texas (for special training) with Bitcoins! This is a huge thing for her and the culmination of her lifes work, so of course I do it, but I really hate to part with hard earned coins ant the moment. It feels like the price is just about to start ramping up again. I'm about to lose my prized investment, about to be forced to drop my tokens of faith. Call it first world problems, but it hurts and I'm am truly on the edge of going broke. Hopefully reader in a better position will be able to help?

Given my dire straights and the cathartic process of making them public some interesting ideas do come to light. How does my situation and situations like it impact the price of bitcoin? What overall psychologically impact does this dynamic have in the early stages of bitcoin adoption?

If this is happening to me then it must be happening elsewhere. Below is a chart of impact to bitcoin value and adopter psychology.

Premiss	Event	Cause	Price Effects	New Adopter Psychology
Early Adopter (EA) spends all savings on bits, standard fiat savings are reduced	EA Loses job and is forced to spend saving which are in bitcoins, and therefore is more likely to spend bits directly for both financial and emotional reasons	Lowering bitcoin price	Retailers tend to sell coins quickly in the short term which brings the price of bitcoin down (-)	Retailers are incouraged to continue to accept bitcoin as it generates business (+)
		Reduced pay off /efficiency for mining		Oppertunities for Altcoins (-)
			Price stabilisation and recovery as more newcomers enter the market. (+)	Lowered barriers for new comers as the price comparison to the past is fairer, animosity to EA wealth is reduced. (+)
			Older investors discouraged from holding bitcoins, due to downward trending (-)	Less people active in the market (-)
		More bitcoin transactions		Higher pubilc awareness (+)
		Increased market Liquidity when people are loosing jobs and running into the very last of their savings.	Arbitrage effect evens out prices on the market as bitcoin sellers can easily sell on the exchange that offers the best rate, but are also drawn to there local resgion where they can access funds. (stability)	Less radical booms and busts or busts delayed from those of the fiat economic cycle. Creates a perception of legitimacy (+)

 

Five plus's, four negatives and one notch a side for stability. The main points to take form this are.

1. Early Adopters are more likely to have to sell as they will likely have less money in normal savings.

2. Early adopter savings get tapped into more when the economy is bad. When interest rates are low bitcoins are a go!

3. Savings fire sales also have the effect of balancing business for companies that accept bitcoin along with standard currencies. They get a boost when early adopter savings start to get tapped into and this makes their business more even overall. For example cheapflights.com got my bits for Texas as it was the only way left we could pay.

So if anything hopefully my plight might shine some light on what we might see in the future with impending economic waves. If you read this please donate and help me pay my rent next month, I am actually begging, but not on the street, digitally!

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