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Thursday 18 June 2015

Whats up Greece? IMF?

Bitcoin has had a bit of a boost over the last couple of days and all indications lead to trouble in Greece being the main driver of this. Trispras gives "the big no" and his secretary says our world loans are "odius" and should not be repaid. Greece still owes 20 trillion Euros.

Imagine that "Sorry bank your lone was an odius rippoff, i'm not paying you" Its not going to go down well. So what is the IMF up to? Where do they get their money? their website doesn't tell you, it just serves to confuse. They certainly loan out a lot. Notice on this chart where they conveniently leave three zeros off the totals, they are in the trillions! 

So much money that they have created there own money. Its called the SDR (Special Drawing Rights). It is actually an international currency and we know so little about it. It went down in value over the last year? it goes under the ticker XDR.

Apparently wealthy countries make contributions to the IMF every year. For example in the last year New Zealand contributed 894 million SDR's to the IMF (equivalent to about the same in USD. But that's deceptive, imagine the headlines if that actually happened "NZers giving away a billion dollars a year to the IMF who waste it on bad dept to Greece!". The reality is the IMF simply credit countries this "quota", bases on GDP (not population, which is a whole other discussion) and then take it back in exchange for voting rights. Effectively meaning that if your heavily in dept you loose your voting rights as a country. The whole system is quite complicated and the international currency of the SDR is very much a mystery to most people. It makes bitcoin seem simple in comparison.

Here are the top seven loans off the most recent chart available from the IMF .



Sub Type Member Date of Arrangement Expiration Total Amount (Thousands of $) Undrawn Balance (Thousands of $)
Flexible Credit Line (FCL) Mexico January 10, 2011 January 09, 2013 29722313 29722313
Stand-By Arrangements (SBA) Greece May 09, 2010 May 08, 2013 16612681 8608422
Extended Arrangements (EFF) Ireland December 16, 2010 December 15, 2013 12233963 9083729
Flexible Credit Line (FCL) Poland, Republic of January 21, 2011 January 20, 2013 12045544 12045544




Notice that Mexico, Ireland and Poland have massive amounts still undrawn in 2013. I did some research and found this report but nothing particulaly conclusive. It all gets quite confusing. What if the all three drew on their credit at the same time, that would be 50 trillion dollars!? It is absolutely impossible for the IMF, or anyone for that matter, to have that sort of money, it's just not there.

So what does this mean? Well it's all a big dept bubble. This can only be good for bitcoin. When someone complains about not understanding bitcoin or how you can't just make something from thin air we can just say "WTF is the SDR?" 

I'll be watching the Greek crisis "Grexit" closely. It could be like Cyprus which triggered a huge bitcoin boom. Further to that the knowledge shown in the chart, that we not only have Spain and Italy to worry about but also Mexico, Ireland and Poland sitting at the top of the list It's becoming clear that there is only one way to be rid of all this mind shattering crazyness, expensive IMF orgies and diplomatic infighting. That's decentralised funds. If they keep this up maybe we'll be able to buy that house on the hill.

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