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Monday 24 September 2018

Adrian Orr Thinks the NZ Reserve Bank is Tane Mahuta

Adrian Orr, New Zealand's Reserve Bank Governor has been printing money at 6% per year. On national radio today when asked about bitcoin he said that he "detested it" even hearing the word a pain and crypto currency not much better. He proceeded to attempt to paint New Zealand's Reserve Bank as Tane Mahuta. This starkly contrasts the legislative issue at hand about the challenge of insulating the New Zealand economy from Australian Banks. I was also surprised by how loose lipped he was about money printing. 

I don't detest much as a matter of personal policy and I think this is a warning sign of weakness. I think that what is happening here is important and echoed around the world. You can listen to his chalice discussion of money printing for investors here. Reserve banks have become overconfident.

Tane Mahuta is a grand metaphor, part of the legend of the New Zealand forest especially important for Kiwis. There is also a real tree and if Adrian really cared he should know that the tree is in serious threat of dying. This tree is over a thousand years old and considered the guardian of the forest. The reserve bank is less than one hundred and I am stretched to see how it is nurturing and protecting business. We are far more likely to see a new little bitcoin Kauri born, immune to money printing. 

Saturday 15 September 2018

The Intrinsic Value of a 100 Billion Dollar Public Database

People often argue that there is no intrinsic value to bitcoin. The subjective nature off the term aside lets talk about the physical properties of bitcoin. Opponents often bring up the idea that there is nothing tangible about bitcoin as a flaw, that it is simply digital air. However I argue the opposite, that there are some strong physical properties.

Tangibility is very subjective in itself, we could of course the functionality and the brand and reputation of the payment network but we will exclude these utilities and financial properties like spending transferring and safe storage of wealth as they are by products of bitcoin. Here we take a narrow perspective where tangibility must be of the item itself and where it must be something that physically exists. We need to consider existence in the context of atoms and in the context of time. We consider things more tangible if they hold their form and if the last a long time, for example gold and silver. Bitcoin is a mathmatic code stored on thousands of computers around the world, a shared database, 0's and 1's one electrically charged plates of silicon. Exploring how this code lasts over time is also interesting.

We a don’t find it hard it hard in the IT world to see the value of a data base. Consider a list of customer email addresses or a library of knowledge about rocket engines. Often we see a large part of the value in this type of database in the possibility that you might have exclusive access to this information. Public databases are slightly different, more like a search engine or public library. Bitcoins block chain is now supported by "on paper" assets of 100 billion dollars and a similarly large amount of physical infrastructure like computers, miners, apps companies. This value creates strong incentive for the public database to be permanent. People who hold this value have an interest in keeping the database around, further to this there is, by today's math, there is another 24 billion, to be drip fed, incentivising miners to keep it around for the next 100 years. The way bitcoins running costs are structured, the difficulty adjustment formula and node propagation, mean that just a few million would be enough to keep the database alive forever and this is by far exceeded with the price even just above $1. This provides a security and permanence rarely seen in the world. The the database could become alder than the pyramids. It does not suffer from erosion. We must accept that a database is physical, but there is a special intrinsic value in this.

This database primarily records movement of value over time, there is value in that just from an economic analysis perspective. This grows as time passes and it remains accurate. More and more information can be pulled from more data, all stored together in a compatible format. As bitcoins value increases small transactions in the past become more significant. People in the future could take pride in discovering that the family fortune once originated in a cup of coffee purchased in San Francisco at some weirdos café who was quick to get on to this stuff. There is a powerful economic understanding to be gained from knowing these money flows. The information is deeper than anything we have ever seen before. We know that information has real value.

Bitcoins blockchain is however not restricted to holding only financial information, you can put any data in it. It is in this case that the permanence of the blockchain begins to gather unknowable value. To write data to the blockchain you need to spend or at least move bitcoin, you need to pay a fee that is equivalent to the amount of kb stored. Here is where owning the 0's and 1's is crucial. Without this code that you hold secrete you are not able to take advantage of the intrinsic value of the permanent public blockchain. You need to hold these in order to have instant access to this broadcast channel and record for humanity. You can write your name, a political statement, a photo, records, a wedding you can even embed code for an application. I’m even considering writing my a blog to it. 1000’s of people have done it already and what they have done will always be there. The cost of recording things to the bitcoin blockchain, what we could call the most significant public database is set to rise because the amount of data in one block is limited to about 1mb every 10 minutes. How much is a note written to be held up for all time worth?

So you can see from this very narrow perspective that there is some strong intrinsic value in bitcoins 100 billion dollar public database. Future value is secure based on the value of future miner rewards and current infrastructure. The longer the bitcoin database is around the more the value it in itself as a resource grows and the more attractive those block space and bitcoins them selves become, as a way of stamping your name or your thoughts down, permanently, for all time, like with a pyramid, maybe you can cheat death.




Wednesday 12 September 2018

How Mt Gox Cleansed Crime From Bitcoin

If you have been around for a while in the crypto world you will know all about Mt Gox and its infamous collapse. Your also probably well aware of the cyber criminal element that so many crypto enthusiasts have been assumed to be a part of. People used to say that bitcoin was just used for buying drugs on the internet. It wasn't true and it is not quite that simple, but now with formal legal proceedings of Mt Gox's bankruptcy turned civil rehabilitation what remnants of the Silkroad economy there once was are being cleansed.

Mt Gox once controlled 80% of the volume of bitcoin trading. Anyone needing to turn bitcoin into cash had to use the site. In the early days, some people had account with verifying their ID's. This later progressed into an over the top photo verification process. Still it is possible that a significant amount of criminal money resided there. Statistically more because criminals, by the nature of their business need to exchange bitcoin and get cash. Investors can simply hold their bitcoin funds offline. 

The legal proceedings of bankruptcy have required more and more privacy intrusion, Id verification, addresses etc and this information is not protected from government legal bodies. This is cleansing the crime from bitcoin because, if you had money gained illegally in Mt Gox, you will now be hesitant to try and reclaim it from the authorities. The question of where did you get these funds can easily arise and in most cases, this risk is more than it is worth. In this way the legitimate credit holders are rewarded.

The rehabilitation is proving to be very liquid. This in the main is due to the huge price rise. It has created a forced hodl situation that has paid off. Crims not wanting to give up ID's though, wont get any of the benefits. Rinse, repeat and bitcoin is becoming squeaky clean.

Tuesday 4 September 2018

The One Year Bear

Born in 2014 after a bitcoin bubble theOne Year Bear market is looking like it might be back for seconds. It's taking down altcoins faster still.
With Bitcoin still at over 7k it seems friendlier the second time around. The price is still 10x what it was on the bears last outing.