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Monday, 14 August 2017

Bitcoin Proliferation is also great for American Macro Economics

There was a few months this year where, for the first time in recent history the bitcoin price in USD was leading the market. This has been rare, in the past the Chinese have seemed to be much faster to get exited about spikes in the bitcoin price,

IN February I was planning to write this post and had just finished a post about how good bitcoin is for Chinese macro. Time has flown by, but the story of how bitcoin can actually be good for the USA, as a government, has actually become more clear. Legislation and media are even getting behind it.

The idea behind why its good is pretty basic. Although this is Pluto like speculation, why not bullet point it;
  • The USA has a lot of debt to foreign countries in USD.
  • The strong USD doesn't really help the US industrial exports especially that lead to trade deficits.
  • Other countries hold large reserves in USD which give them some leverage over the country (China's 3 Trillion odd USD in bonds, Switzerland's giant US stock stash) 
  • The average American also has plenty of personal debt.
  • Money printing and inflation can be used and abused in the transition period
So.... Why not just forget about that old money and just start a fresh?

Some people might logically think it could be the best thing you could do . The benefits could be;
  • No more national debt
  • Good exports with minimal disruption, leading to more jobs
  • No leverage from foreign powers
  • Reduce the average Americans debt
  • The whole thing happened because some anonymous internet money that is totally decentralised and we obviously couldn't have seen coming, "sorry creditors, it's not our fault"
  • the government can get itself out of a difficult fiscal and macro economic position, without the hard sacrifices that might normally be needed. 
  • USA would be a first mover on what could become the new world reserve currency
I'm not saying that this is going to happen, but I am laying down the logic. It's not all bad.

The next blog on macro will be about when a smaller country might approach a tipping point. 

 

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