Why is it that we say that developed countries can't sustain 5% growth? In economics theory, technology saturation, diminishing returns on investment, limited resources and disrupted innovation in corporations come to mind. My economist friends say people reach a state of comfort, but comfort is comparative. I like to separate the concept in to two categories, physical and psychological. This is important as psychological problems can be approached in a much different way. I argue that the physical barriers may not be as they seem.
Why couldn't investment ontop of investment create a better return? Why cant a technology bringing together other technologies provide a greater result than what technologies do alone? I argue that there can be synergy in technology in highly developed economy. I feel that it may be that we are only just entering a truly technological world and that it is possible that the growth from technology can be compounding even exponential. Technology is amplified in a technology rich world.
Conventional though is
1 unit of tech + 1 unit of tech - 0.25 superseded industry = 1.75 units of growth
I propose that its possible for
(1 unit of tech + 1 unit of tech - 0 superseded industry) x amplifications factor = 2.5 units of growth
Scarcity is a big factor of the economics of the past. The world has limited physical resources to be converted to growth. Scarcity however becomes less relevant in the future in a world where information is mined and we don't rely on physical things for growth. We can see new dynamics already appearing with zero marginal costs, the sharing economy and the internet of things.
I was discussing this with over a drink and a friend bought up the the subject of the lack of significant developments in recent years.The internet, 3D printing and driver-less cars, three things, and that's it. Compare that with the automobile, the jet engine and the nuclear reactor of yesteryear and with nomral perception we seem to be falling behind.
I would add the automation of the financial system (as allowed through crypto-currency) to our list of big recent developments. but as with bitcoins it isn't the invention itself but the utilisation that is the key to growth. The full benefit to the motor car isn't actualised until everyone uses one and this is still growing today. Perception is key when converting inventive technology to economic quality of life.
I propose that the invention of a car that can drive itself provides more efficiencies than that of the original automobile. This because more time will be saved and it allows more new business models across what is now a larger infrastructure. The new challenge becomes converting time and business models to growth. This contrast the straight resource conversion of old economics.
One example of technological synergy comes when your combine a mobile internet gps technology Uber and the developing Google Self-Driving Car. Uber provides an efficient taxi service allowing cab drivers to respond dynamically to demand and self manage. Google Chauffeur automates the act of driving. The developments do overlap. There are diminishing returns across the technologies but when the concepts are combined we get a dynamically responsive and automated transport system. A revolution in transport. I call this 'Zyber' and it can be used for more than just taxi rides, imagine miniature courier vans even buses, trucks and planes. I argue that in this case and cases like it technologies come together to equal more than the sum of there parts.
Labour is the main cost for Uber as it is with many companies. With driver-less cars the Uber service which is already very cost effective would be overwhelmingly cheaper than owning your own driver-less car. It will come with other benefits like not having to pay for parking and convenient vehicle choice.
($40b Uber + $100b Google Chauffeur - $90b superseded industry) x 20 amplification factor = $1000b Zyber growth
Efficiency doesn't necessarily equally growth. What happened to the porters and horses when the car was invented? With Zyber, car parking buildings and car sales will go down per capita. The superseded part of the economy will be huge. but part of what new technology has done is allowed us to fill these gaps more quickly than before. Car park buildings are converted to apartments and assembly lines practice JIT delivery. Modern stock markets redistribute capitol more quickly than before and start ups are seeded internationally over the internet. 3D printers that are used to print a car radiators don't care if they now have to print aircraft parts. Through technology we can see that superseded industry is replaced more and more quickly. I predict that we will see a lot of this in the future which can actually open up the economy to growth.
The main point is of the effect on the existing infrastructure. Infrastructure in a way could also be called technology. In the case of Zyber, the massive infrastructure of roads will be amplified. The economic effect being the same a that of large infrastructure spending. I argue that the same thing will happening when bitcoin leverages on the growing internet and that this type of synergy will be seen more often in the future.
The world has changed and we need to look carefully to see that the technology is impressive. With new thinking we can find resources in technological places that can provide new profits and growth from unexpected places. The idea that technology can leverage against existing technology better than against non technologies is exciting and positive for future growth. Bitcoin and the internet are definitely part of these amplifying technologies. Adoption is key and it often slow and is difficult to measure. I argue that in today's increasingly intangible world all the barriers to economic growth are psychological.
Why couldn't investment ontop of investment create a better return? Why cant a technology bringing together other technologies provide a greater result than what technologies do alone? I argue that there can be synergy in technology in highly developed economy. I feel that it may be that we are only just entering a truly technological world and that it is possible that the growth from technology can be compounding even exponential. Technology is amplified in a technology rich world.
Conventional though is
1 unit of tech + 1 unit of tech - 0.25 superseded industry = 1.75 units of growth
I propose that its possible for
(1 unit of tech + 1 unit of tech - 0 superseded industry) x amplifications factor = 2.5 units of growth
Scarcity is a big factor of the economics of the past. The world has limited physical resources to be converted to growth. Scarcity however becomes less relevant in the future in a world where information is mined and we don't rely on physical things for growth. We can see new dynamics already appearing with zero marginal costs, the sharing economy and the internet of things.
I was discussing this with over a drink and a friend bought up the the subject of the lack of significant developments in recent years.The internet, 3D printing and driver-less cars, three things, and that's it. Compare that with the automobile, the jet engine and the nuclear reactor of yesteryear and with nomral perception we seem to be falling behind.
I would add the automation of the financial system (as allowed through crypto-currency) to our list of big recent developments. but as with bitcoins it isn't the invention itself but the utilisation that is the key to growth. The full benefit to the motor car isn't actualised until everyone uses one and this is still growing today. Perception is key when converting inventive technology to economic quality of life.
I propose that the invention of a car that can drive itself provides more efficiencies than that of the original automobile. This because more time will be saved and it allows more new business models across what is now a larger infrastructure. The new challenge becomes converting time and business models to growth. This contrast the straight resource conversion of old economics.
One example of technological synergy comes when your combine a mobile internet gps technology Uber and the developing Google Self-Driving Car. Uber provides an efficient taxi service allowing cab drivers to respond dynamically to demand and self manage. Google Chauffeur automates the act of driving. The developments do overlap. There are diminishing returns across the technologies but when the concepts are combined we get a dynamically responsive and automated transport system. A revolution in transport. I call this 'Zyber' and it can be used for more than just taxi rides, imagine miniature courier vans even buses, trucks and planes. I argue that in this case and cases like it technologies come together to equal more than the sum of there parts.
($40b Uber + $100b Google Chauffeur - $90b superseded industry) x 20 amplification factor = $1000b Zyber growth
Efficiency doesn't necessarily equally growth. What happened to the porters and horses when the car was invented? With Zyber, car parking buildings and car sales will go down per capita. The superseded part of the economy will be huge. but part of what new technology has done is allowed us to fill these gaps more quickly than before. Car park buildings are converted to apartments and assembly lines practice JIT delivery. Modern stock markets redistribute capitol more quickly than before and start ups are seeded internationally over the internet. 3D printers that are used to print a car radiators don't care if they now have to print aircraft parts. Through technology we can see that superseded industry is replaced more and more quickly. I predict that we will see a lot of this in the future which can actually open up the economy to growth.
The main point is of the effect on the existing infrastructure. Infrastructure in a way could also be called technology. In the case of Zyber, the massive infrastructure of roads will be amplified. The economic effect being the same a that of large infrastructure spending. I argue that the same thing will happening when bitcoin leverages on the growing internet and that this type of synergy will be seen more often in the future.
The world has changed and we need to look carefully to see that the technology is impressive. With new thinking we can find resources in technological places that can provide new profits and growth from unexpected places. The idea that technology can leverage against existing technology better than against non technologies is exciting and positive for future growth. Bitcoin and the internet are definitely part of these amplifying technologies. Adoption is key and it often slow and is difficult to measure. I argue that in today's increasingly intangible world all the barriers to economic growth are psychological.
