Bitcoin Layer 3 Can Do It All

Soon Bitcoin miners may be using the lightning network for communicating hash instead of the regular internet. Lightning is opening up the unlimited potentials we first saw at the start of the decentralised cambrian crypto moment. 

It's become clear that The lightning Network is the second truly decentralised DAO (bitcoin being the first). and that on this, we are seeing a wild new ecosystem immerge. Layer three apps.  Redphone, peer to peer phone calls, Impervious, VPN,s lightning powered Lapps, Stakwork, Next Cloud, PhotoPrim, The Umbrel app store,  to name just a few. There is culture too, check out Plebnet and Sphinxchat. Hell, we could clone Etherium again on this thing and it would be more decentralised. It's good to see things happening the right way on layer 2. The possibilities on bitcoin layer three powered by lightning are wide open.  

In Bitcoin 100x is Just a Few Years

To think about super wealthy people in bitcoin you might imagine someone with a super stak of say 1000 bitcoin. Turns out that is the technical term threshold for a whale. It's a wild unrealistic number to most of us now. At around 35 million bucks worth its beyond achievable with a normal work life balance. Even 10 bitcoin or 1 billion sats seems like a stretch of dreams at the moment. Certainly for people just discovering this stuff. But it wasn't soo long ago that ten bitcoin could be had for a week's wages, so in a bitcoiners mind there is a confusing new perspective here. It wasn't so long before that that a whale stak could have been had for half of your weeks wages. It is the time and not the amount that starts to become more significant.

10 years ago the price of one btc rose to surpass $1. This means basically anyone who was around at that time could afford to be a whale now. Not many people did that, but it was not the money that made it happen, it was the time.  The fact that this person held on over this time is the most significant factor. In bitcoin 100x is just 5 years and we all have time (most of us poor people anyway). Now time is worth a lot. You know the phrase, we are bringing it back, now money is only time. If you have a few years, you can be a whale.

El Salvador!

Congratulations to the first government to wake up  Let's hope Jacinda will catch on. #NZ BTC LEGAL TENDER

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/06/12/el-salvador-bitcoin-volcano-faq/

Bitcoin Lightning, The New World Computer

With Stakwork, Sphinx, RGB and so forth the bitcoin lightning network is functioning as a world computer. Etherium beware because the lightning network already runs! 1,  and 2. it is a highbred full node proof of stake network. That is full nodes are rewarded for liquidity the put on the network, and highbred because they must serve transactions to get the opt in fees.

Would you Buy an Irredeemable Bond Paying 15%?

Anyone for an annuity? Perpetual Bond? Given the Bitcoins growth over time should exceed 18% that would leave a good margin for the bond issuers. That 18% number is based on the bitcoin having and demand staying were it is. In other words the price doubling every 4 years, which I would say is the lower bound of possibilities. Historical gains in bitcoin are currently between 120% and 200% per year. 

Current annuities in New Zealand are paying out 2.7% so it would be very competitive just to get 15%..

The Price Plus Some Sats

In the future I predict houses selling for less than there actual sale price as bitcoon is paid directly to the owner. Deliveries are sped up with extra sat sweeteners. Bitcoin tips are most appreciated. The government let's it happen so they can keep their cpi figures low. 

Next They Will Blame Inflation on Bitcoin

First the electricity prices go through the roof and keep climbing. People say it's because of bitcoin mining and because of all the bitcoin millionares. It's not.

The cost of electricity will skyrocket in dollars, but priced in bitcoin it will be flat. Electricity prices may even start to take on characteristics of the 4 year bitcoin cycle.

The Value of Your Salary

With the value of your bitcoin stack going through the roof, possibly up or down more than your whole years salary in a single day, the true value of your job and what your doing with your days becomes a bewildering question. The bitcoiners conventional wisdom has been "don't quit your day job" but what are the numbers around it? As more and more OG bitcoiners fall victim to derangement syndrome we best find out how to tamper the psychological effects of rapid wealth increase with math.

The value of time is important for this calculation. Normally people use the interest rate to define this, you could generously use 3% at the moment. A simple calculation would be your salary / the interest rate ie 100k/0.03= 3.3 million.  Basically you would need this much money in the bank to collect the same amount annually as you would working.

A job is a little more than this though as the contract often doesn't end at the end of the year and you might realistically expect for the wage to be increase by the rate of inflation each year. If you do a good job you can reasonably expect to be able to hold onto your job for 20years or for the rest of your working life. The new calculation would be calculated like that of an annuity

"P = PMT x ((1 – (1 / (1 + r) ^ -n)) / r)". 

• P = the present value of annuity
• PMT = the amount in each annuity payment (in dollars)
• R= the interest or discount rate
• n= the number of payments left to receive

Lets also add in Inflation as discussed above and r = R-I

• i= the government inflation number

The present value equals the annual salary times the compounding sum of future payment divided by the interest rate minus the inflation rate. 

Here we get 

100k x ((1-((1/1(1+(0.03-0.058)))^-(65- age))/(0.03- 0.058)

= $2 million bucks

This is with generous interest and inflation numbers, they should actually be closer to zero. No wonder people are feeling a little bit trapped, because you would need this much spare cash to get out of the rate race. This figure goes up even further when inflation increases and the interest rate decreases and I would argue that it is a mechanism of modern slavery. As a bitcoiner however, you can begin to think about this differently. You may want to swap the interest rate number for the average appreciation of bitcoin versus the dollar. 

At 200% all of the sudden your job is worth a lot less. This brings the figure to $50k ie the value of a job is worth about 6 months of savings! 

If you want to be conservative you can change the return to 20% you get $496k something that is far more attainable. 6.05 bitcoin or just a little bit more than you need to gain genetic immortality. If you bought bitcoin years ago and held that could be just a slice of pizza. $6k USD at the all time high of 2013.

Any way we calculate it we can see that the value of your job, your regular salary, is reduced significantly once you hodling bitcoin. But what about stacking sats? If you don't have a job how do you stack more sats? These calculations ignore the value of your savings and assumes your sitting on a stack of coins and selling them as you need. Well that's another post altogether. Try putting 20-200% returns into your retirement calculator. It's parabolic.

$15k worth of bitcoin saved every year for the next 30 years comes with the 10 year historic bitcoin appreciation rate of 200% net you a cool bunch of zeros which will not even fit on the calculator. There is a number after quadrillion called quintillion. 

Even with 20% it comes to 17.8million

For those who are feeling deranged, converting your salary to savings in bitcoin can help keep the focus. In the words of Matt Odell, "stay humble, stack sats". It makes it more worthwhile to work.

 

Live Forever in the Bitcoin Blockchain

The cost of immortality, the possibility to transcend time, depending on your philosophical perspective ,could now be measurable. If you believe the bitcoin blockchain can last forever then you just need to get your DNA sequenced and save your DNA in digital form  on the bitcoin blockchain. 

We have a few moral issues that we brush over here, the validity of DNA preservation and privacy along with the scarcity and abuse of blockspace, but lets not dwell on it. It costs only around $1000 to get your genome fully sequenced. So if you want this its not to hard. Finding a permanent secure database that you can rely on being around for ever and accessible for everyone is where the real challenge lies for those inclines on escaping a metaphorical oblivion.

The bitcoin blockchain is a permanent database for all, but it doesn't like to hold too much information. So firstly, to find out what it might cost and if it is possible, we need to know how many kb are needed to hold human DNA sequence? Well quite a lot, 725mb at most but thankfully this can be losslessly compressed to only 4mb using, our old friend clever cryptography. This still will not fit in one block, but it could be split over many with the details of the file locations detailed. With these data sizes you could get the data saved in a tidy little package on your birthday.

So saving your DNA on the bitcoin blockchain is feasible, but what will it cost? Considering the current rates and fee market dynamics you do currently need to be pretty flush with bitcoin to do this. If you had millions you could conceivably do it in around an hour. The cost in this case is not that predictable and could skyrocket. As a normal person however, if we tried to do it at the current kb transaction rate with a longer time frame and without disrupting the balance, it would cost say 0.0012 btc per Kb or 1.2 btc per MB. That's a grand total of around 4.8btc for the possibility of clone me into infinity, its a lot osf sats but not such a bad deal if you're trying to take over the world.

Mt Gox is Heating Up

Fortress are offering 80% on Rehabilitation claim values

Coinlab are still evil but may be relenting. 

https://blog.wizsec.jp/2021/01/earlier-mtgox-payouts-coinlab.html?m=0

https://blog.wizsec.jp/2021/02/mtgox-claim-calculator.html

Simple Model for Import Export Payments On Chain

I import product for business all the time and i am often forced to use the existing and antiquated system It is a nightmare. Requires a lot of trust, its slow and expensive. Normally paying USD in advanced is the requirement and at the moment you may wait months for your product to arrive with little recourse if its not right. 

There is huge prospect for bitcoin here. Taking advantage of the transparent block chain is also an advantage as when you transfer through the bank you have to trust a long line of intermediates with your money and you never really know where it is when it in limbo. Suppliers are forced to accept unknown exchange rates. Shipping companies have to do a lot of documentation so that part payment plans can be enforced.

So you could make the one transfer in bitcoin it would be much easier and faster, but you can also do lots of new more advanced payment plans better. Here's the plan for a self managed deposit plan.

Three part payment plan for importers and exporters

Agree on the total value at the time of purchase order as measured in bitcoin. eg 20,000 sats This could b e for FOB or delivered pricing. 

Stage 1. Paid to start the order

Stage 2. At some stage when shipping documents are received, eg: Loading onto ship confirmed.

Stage 3. On receipt of goods in good condition at your shop.

On the purchase order a you print a public address where the full sum of funds are sent. this way the supplier knows that you have the money available and they can see on the block chain if you move it. Its easy to do this by just creating a new wallet address in your bitcoin wallet and it will only take one transaction. 

When you transfer the bitcoin from each stage you do it from this bitcoin address.

Its that easy. 

I should really do a flow chart process for you  like i did for my shipping or container tracking and quality assurance stickers in a previous post here.

 

Orange Pill - The Danger of Copernicus

Get your orange pill with your friendly long form Podcaster. Today they chatted about Copernicus and how he not only redefined the solar system, but also ralied against the state for printing money and developed concepts that led to Gresham Law. The concept that people will always use the most scarce money to store their wealth. Copernicus was a bitcoiner!

The inquisition could not stop Copernicis in the end and now the bitcoin price goes up like the earth orbits the sun.

Link Orange Pill OP30 2021

Creating Privacy with Paper Wallets

Using paper wallets like cash adds a great layer anominity to bitcoin. #lowtechsolutions

Now you just need to find an all offline computer and dot matrix printer to make them.

Overtake Elon

The prospect of overtaking the new richest man in the world seems so impossible, his financial rise so untenable, however if you just consider bitcoin and what percentage of your wealth you have in it, you may just be able to ti catch up or get ahead of him. If bitcoin takes over everything, as it seems to  continues to do, then at some stage, all that matters is your satoshis.

Right now we could assume that all Elon bitcoin is in Tesla where they recently bought 1.5 billion worth, approx. 42,000 coins (less than micro strategy have bought for half the money just months before). Elon owns 20.7% of Tesla and that is pretty well his whole net worth at 150 billion. So we can say he has about 1.5% of his net worth in bitcoin. To catch up to him you just need to put more than 1.5% of your own in. To overtake him you just need 630 bitcoin, its a lot but its not so far as the hundress of billions of usd.

If you act now bitcoin can close the wealth gap and bring us closer together. 

New World Wizards

The bitcoin future is a fantastic one where kings and queens rule the lands only at the relaxed acceptance of the wizards.

These crypto wizards do not profess to beeing wizards and are not seen in public. They have a deep understanding of bitcoin in particular and have practical coding skills which they often experiment with. They can be quite private and are mostly only seen in character anonymously online.

The wizards heave specialties, dark wizards  light wizards and their magic is through "sufficiently advanced technology". They are also quite heavy into their philosophy and physics. You may even know one without knowing.

Alt Season May Not Arrive this Time

Bitcoin is up over 22% on the last tick and Altcoins are not keeping up. It seems likely that Altcoin season is not going to arrive like it has in the past. If it's not keeping up with bitcoin then you are going backwards.

The Rising and Rising Meme Video Thing

Realising that something as silly as online meme video craze might be enought to get bitcoin to the moon. I wish I was still a Dogeilionare because now it would be $83000 usd or just over 200,000,000 sats 2 btc! Thanks Elon! Let the meme wars begin!

Changing Your Perspective

https://fiatmarketcap.com/

Game Stop

There are signs of disturbance in the finaverse. Maybe diamond hands will start stacking sats and really make the game stop.

The Micheal Sailor Put

It once was the Fed put, now this trade is taken over by private billionaires.

#MSPUT

The Great Save

Speculating is rife at the moment, most of it very short term. Speculation about the distant future seems to be something of a fantasy and happening less and less. With "uncertainty" dominating the airways l long term thinking is falling away but i would say it is having a resurgence brought on in the domain of the bitcoiner.

On the cusp of 2021 I don't think it's to radical to say the world is in a terrible state. Global warming and a destructive leveraged economy red hot and ready to implode/explode. Saving money is the last thing on many peoples minds, finding yield on stagnant savings is the first thing on others. Saving us all from environmental doom is also a polarised topic at the forefront of short term speculation. With bitcoin ramping up to 30k (now  nearly 40k) and creating a new wave of what I would argue most people can now think of as financial savers (once speculators) we have to consider what impact this has on the economy and the environment. The impact of bitcoin goes parabolic as its price rises? Short term speculators turn to long term hodlers.

If the price goes vertical enough for long enough we all know that it's distracting, at some stage this distraction impacts on the world economy. at the moment a small proportion of society is laser focused on bitcoin less than a few percent, but imagine the bitcoin price starts taking out trillions by the day, some one says quintillion and at this moment almost everyone realises that working for anything other than love, is kind of pointless. You just got to stop and get some bits. The economy grinds to a halt and everyone just sells whatever or does whatever they can for bitcoin. I call this The Great Save, and it probably starts much earlier than described above, at a point where the number of people saving bitcoin adds to a percentage of the economy that exceeds that of the normal fiat savings rate.

During the Great Save not only do people start saving instead of consuming, but the environment gets a great boost. Unnecessary activities are drastically reduced. We saw this with covid19 as people focus only on what is needed. Birds and bees return to the streets and global warming could be halted.

With a mass buildup of bitcoin savings people stop unproductive jobs and unemployment is reduced somewhat as the obvious method of getting ahead are glaringly obvious, either stack or mine. Computer chip prices and bitcoin mining machine prices will skyrocket in fiat. As the Big Save Progresses the bitcoin hash rate will plateau as the opportunity cost of buying miners instead of bitcoin become too high. Energy costs which first went down in fiat due to recession will start to rise and utility companies will start accepting bitcoin for payment. Coal power plants will only survive as long as Governments subsidise them as mining migrates easily to the cheapest power and those companies are more easily able to accept bitcoin from their bitcoin mining clientele. People will only want to work jobs if 1. They are paid in bitcoin, 2 if they have to, 3. if there are real and direct benefits in the long term as they see it to the world.

I think many will agree this kind of process is needed in the current economy and will have lasting benefits for everyone. At the same time many of us will be concerned here for the impacts of what for many people will look like a stagnant economy. however it seems that the first stages of The Great Save are here and it's not clear from what we see that it must hurt the average person. Governments currently sending fiat directly to people in need and may increase this in The Great Save environment. most problem happen when fiat is distributed to companies or diverted to the top one percent (the cantilionairs). People end up spending only what they must in fiat at the dwindling government supported businesses accepting it. The rest of the printed fiat would be saved as bitcoin (we see this with micro strategy). The more people saved the more free they would become. Free from roles where they would need to work for fiat. given a vertical rise in price it only takes a tiny fraction of bitcoin, just some savings, for the average person to escape the fiat trap. This considering that bitcoin is an equal opportunity financial instrument for everyone with a smart phone and internet. Large institutions receiving fiat are actually disadvantaged because they are more likely to be tracked and restricted from  bitcoin purchases.  The average person can make a quick decision to get in and quickly discovers the benefit of saving this way.

Over time the economy reconfigures to jobs that people and more specifically bitcoiners find valuable. This will be a much more long term perspective to value. People will not drop their savings without good and enduring reason. I don't know if it will be this wave or later, but I think it's clear now that its coming. The Great Save is the end of consumer culture.

The Failed Flippening

http://www.flippening.watch/

Ethereum has managed to overtake bitcoin only in the number of transactions. This is causing scaling issues and they have decided to reprogramed the system and start again. It will be a break in their blockchain. 

The transaction number for bitcoin excludes transactions on the bitcoin lightning network which can scale to near infinite levels. It's an epic fail for Ethereum as far as I can see.